Tips for traders and investors on the Indian Stock Markets. April 16 2014.

The Nifty did manage to hold the 6714 support in the last trading session albeit on closing basis, which is the only positive takeaway. The 6714 mark continues to be the deciding point for the immediate trend, a breach of which may lead to creation of fresh shorts in the market. Otherwise the market will consolidate in today’s session. It will turn bullish only if the resistance of 6778 is conquered conclusively with good volumes.

Intra-day traders may short the Nifty if it breaks the support of 6714 and trades for more than an hour below 6710 and book successive profits at around 6690 and 6648. They may go long only if the Nifty trades above the 6752 mark with stop loss at 6724 to book successive profits at around 6775 and 6793.

Short-term traders may initiate fresh shorts if Nifty trades below 6710 mark in the initial hour of trade with good volumes with stop loss at 6714. Otherwise they may add longs with stop loss at 6710.

Mid-term investors may utilize any up-side to rid their portfolio of non-performers.

In case of weakness, they may consider buying Ambuja Cement at 208.05 in small quantities. They may also consider buying L&T in small lots at 1259.55.

Disclaimer: The writers of this column do not personally hold any stock or position in the F&O market and do not intend to benefit in any way by publishing this column. The final discretion is that of the reader and we disown any responsibility for any loss incurred by the reader.

Tips for traders and investors on the Indian Stock Markets. April 15 2014.

The immediate trend will be bullish if the Nifty trades above the 6781 mark in the initial hour of trade and will turn weak if it trades below 6760 mark.

Intra-day traders may go long if the Nifty trades above the 6781 mark to book successive profits at around 6800, 6822 and 6845. However, they may play on the short side if the index trades below 6760 with targets of 6750, 6725 and 6709.

Short-term traders may continue to go long even if Nifty weakens in the session with stop loss at 6714.

Mid-term investors may utilize any up-side to rid their portfolio of non-performers.

In case of weakness, they may consider buying Ambuja Cement at 205.35 in small quantities. They may also consider buying L&T in small lots at 1282.35.

Disclaimer: The writers of this column do not personally hold any stock or position in the F&O market and do not intend to benefit in any way by publishing this column. The final discretion is that of the reader and we disown any responsibility for any loss incurred by the reader.

Rajan versus Ben at Brooking's

On 10th April speaking at a Brooking's Institution panel discussion in Washington, chief of RBI, India's central bank , Raghuram Rajan called for better coordination and asked, 'If the policy hurts the rest of the world more than it helps the United States, should this policy be pursued?'

He further stated that the Fed has kept interest rates low for too long through its "quantitative easing" asset purchases.

Former Fed chief Ben Bernanke, who was also present, lashed out, 'The speech just reflects the fact that you are very skeptical of unconventional monetary policies. You say that the rules of the game should prevent policies with 'large adverse spillovers and questionable domestic benefits.' If you have a different empirical assessment than I do, that in fact, emerging markets would be better off if they hadn't been used, then you would have a different view."You make a very clever equivalence between exchange rate intervention and unconventional monetary policy. There's one big difference, which is that exchange rate intervention sterilized the effects on monetary policy or on money supply. What that means is unconventional policies are demand augmenting, they increase demand in the economy, whereas exchange rate interventions like the tariffs of the 1930s are demand diverting.'

However, they shook hands later as Rajan said, 'Ben, I am going to miss you.' 

Tips for traders and investors on the Indian Stock Markets. April 11 2014.

The immediate trend of the market will remain bullish, but the intraday- trading depends on which side of the 6800 mark the Nifty opens and trades in the initial hour.

Intra-day traders may go long if the Nifty trades above the 6800 mark to book successive profits at around 6820, 6842 and 6855. Otherwise they may play on the short side with targets of 6775, 6750 and 6732.

Short-term traders may continue to go long even if Nifty weakens in the session with stop loss at 6714.

Mid-term investors may utilize any up-side to rid their portfolio of non-performers.

In case of weakness, they may consider buying Ambuja Cement at 204.85 in small quantities. They may also consider buying L&T in small lots at 1282.35.

Disclaimer: The writers of this column do not personally hold any stock or position in the F&O market and do not intend to benefit in any way by publishing this column. The final discretion is that of the reader and we disown any responsibility for any loss incurred by the reader.

Tips for traders and investors on the Indian Stock Markets. April 10 2014.

The undercurrent is clearly bullish but the stock participation is not wide enough. Yet there seems to be a bit more of headroom left in the benchmark index.

The immediate trend of the market though bullish, depends much upon whether the Nifty opens and trades above the 6770 mark in the initial hour.

Intra-day traders may go long if the Nifty trades above the 6770 mark to book successive profits at around 6844 and 6875. Otherwise they may play on the short side for twenty odd points.

Short-term traders may go long even if Nifty weakens in the session with stop loss at 6710.

Mid-term investors may utilize any up-side to rid their portfolio of non-performers.

In case of weakness, they may consider buying Ambuja Cement at 203.15 in small quantities.

Disclaimer: The writers of this column do not personally hold any stock or position in the F&O market and do not intend to benefit in any way by publishing this column. The final discretion is that of the reader and we disown any responsibility for any loss incurred by the reader.

Tips for traders and investors on the Indian Stock Markets. April 9 2014.

The direction of Nifty today depends on which side of the 6690 mark it trades in the initial hour. However, the technical charts suggest that there might be a little more downside in the benchmark index. Otherwise this is a structural bull market.

Intra-day traders may go long if the Nifty trades above the 6690 mark to book profits at around 6725.  Otherwise, they may go short with stop loss at 6728, in which case they may book profits successively at around 6660 and 6620.

Short-term traders may go short with stop loss at 6735. However, if the market trades above 6735 with good volumes and for longer period then they may consider going long.

Mid-term investors may utilize any up-side to rid their portfolio of non-performers.

In case of weakness, they may consider buying Ambuja Cement at 197.45 in small quantities.

Disclaimer: The writers of this column do not personally hold any stock or position in the F&O market and do not intend to benefit in any way by publishing this column. The final discretion is that of the reader and we disown any responsibility for any loss incurred by the reader.

The currency exchange rates, facts and myths.

Post Bretton woods summit, it was declared that one USD was exchangable for one ounce of gold, if held by a foreigner. For US citizens, however, it was not exchangeable for gold henceforth.
In August 1971, Nixon declared that USD will not be exchanged for gold anymore, irrespective of who held it.
Most currencies thereafter were traded against each other, their value depending on the compromise of buyer and seller of one currency for another.
The White House further got OPEC on its side and played its diplomacy to make it cumpolsory that OPEC accept only USD for all the oil it sold. (Was Saddam Hussein routed for having uttered his idea of accepting Euro instead of USD by OPEC! But that is beyond our subject)
With prime pumping as the driving force in India, which has been a hallmark of the ruling party since the time of the late prime minister of India, Ms Indra N Gandhi, there has been considerable growth in size of towns and cities and lot of real estate develpoment and construction activity. The consumption of oil, a major fraction of which is imported, has consequently increased in a spiral. Though the Indian domestic consumers of oil pay in INR, the nation has to pay the oil bill in USD.
How does it procure USD? Through exports?
The balance of trade is tipped against the nation which means that the nation hardly earns sufficient USD to pay the oil bill. So what it does is simply sell INR against USD and thus pay the oil bill from the USD bought by selling INR.
The result: INR is loosing its value. It was equal to one USD in 1947 and as of now one USD is equal to 61.02 INR. (as we write on March 21 2014)
All other theories that are being floated in media on exchange rate are just myths.